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2024-12-14 12:06:42

OPEC Monthly Report: The recent steady economic growth trend is still continuing. The OPEC Monthly Report points out that in recent months, the steady economic growth trend is still continuing, especially in the United States, Brazil and Russia. In addition, China's stimulus measures and India's sustained growth momentum have contributed to supporting global economic growth. With these developments, the global economic growth in 2024 is expected to be 3.1%. The strong economic growth momentum is expected to continue until 2025 and is expected to reach 3.0%. However, the healthy growth observed in the United States during 2024 is expected to slow down slightly in 2025. However, the current growth forecast may be affected by the potential new policy measures being discussed by the incoming US government, such as trade tariffs, which will also affect the growth of US trading partner economies. In the euro zone, the recovery will continue gradually in the third quarter of 2024, but the improvement in the fourth quarter and 2025 is expected to be limited. Japan is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024 and continue until 2025, after a challenging period.COSCO Shipping once again won the bid for Qatar Energy Project. On December 11th, according to the official news of COSCO Shipping, the awarding ceremony of six QC-MAX 271,000-square-meter super-large LNG carriers for Qatar Energy Project was held at the Doha headquarters of Qatar Energy Company. Shanghai COSCO Shipping LNG, a subsidiary of COSCO Shipping Energy, and Mitsui, a merchant ship, jointly won the bid. Previously, in 2022, the two parties jointly won the bid for seven 174,000-square-meter LNG carriers of the project for the first time.Analysts commented on the US CPI in November: the data is in line with expectations, and there may be four interest rate cuts next year. Brian Jacobsen, chief economist of Annex Wealth Management, said: "There is nothing unexpected in the CPI report, and everything is in line with expectations. Housing cost is still the main driver of inflation. With the employment report and inflation report, nothing can stop the Fed from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week. What will be exciting is the summary of the Fed's economic forecast. There may be four interest rate cuts in 2025, and inflation will eventually fall to the target level. "


In November, the CPI of the United States hit its biggest increase in seven months, but it is unlikely to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates next week. The consumer price index of the United States recorded its biggest increase in seven months in November, but it is unlikely to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates for the third time next week in the context of the cooling job market. Data show that CPI rose by 0.3% last month, the biggest increase since April, after the index rose by 0.2% for four consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of CPI rose by 2.7% after rising by 2.6% in October. Compared with the peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of inflation has slowed down significantly. Nevertheless, in recent months, the process of reducing the inflation rate to the Fed's 2% target has actually stalled. However, the Fed is now more concerned about the labor market. Although employment growth accelerated in November after being severely disturbed by strikes and hurricanes in October, the unemployment rate accelerated to 4.2% after staying at 4.1% for two consecutive months.Kaisa disclosed the progress of overseas debt restructuring. Hong Kong plans to hold a hearing on December 19, and Kaisa Group Holdings Limited issued an announcement on December 11, disclosing further information about overseas debt restructuring, involving a notice to hold a hearing. According to the announcement, Kaisa Hong Kong plans to hold a hearing in the High Court of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region at 10 am on December 19, 2024. At the same time, Kaisa Cayman plans to hold a hearing in the Grand Court of Cayman Islands at 9: 30 am on January 15, 2025.The further rebound of CPI in the United States is in line with market expectations. The annual rate of CPI in the United States in November was 2.7%, which was expected to be 2.7% and the previous value was 2.60%. After seasonal adjustment, the monthly CPI rate is 0.3%, expected 0.3%, and the previous value is 0.20%. The annual rate of core CPI in the United States in November was not seasonally adjusted to 3.3%, which was expected to be 3.3% and the previous value was 3.30%. After seasonal adjustment, the monthly rate of core CPI is 0.3%, the expected rate is 0.30%, and the previous value is 0.30%.


Albertson shares rose 1.6% before the market closed.Chris, analyst: After the US CPI was released, the US stock index futures once hit an intraday high, but the market reaction was still quite dull.After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.

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